How does incrementality enhance UA prediction and optimization?

When COVID-19 hit the world, digitalization skyrocketed. People had to find new ways to communicate, be entertained, and live their life from home. Brands also had to find new ways to survive, grow and interact with their customers. Just like that, the number of apps boomed and so did the competition. It won’t slow down any time soon. That’s why apps need to advertise successfully. Otherwise, it is difficult to differentiate from the competition and acquire new users.

So here’s the secret sauce for successful advertising: innovative UA driven by innovative measurement. Innovative UA provides the ability to make smart, and fast decisions today that outperform the competition tomorrow. This new type of decision-making is powered by prediction. Prediction itself is fueled by innovative measurement that is accurate, unbiased, granular and grounded in scientific methods that have been honed over many years. This type of measurement is known as incrementality.

What is incrementality?

You may have heard about incrementality and wondered what all the fuss is about.  Well, in the post-IDFA world, last touch is certainly a flawed and unreliable form of marketing measurement.  Fortunately, incrementality does not depend on IDFAs or GAIDs, or arbitrary attribution window. It is far more accurate than last touch or SKAN in powering your UA prediction and optimization.

 

Incrementality is the lift, in terms of any KPI (such as ROAS), over all other media spend plus organic demand. It’s really all that matters. If certain media spend is cannibalizing organic lift or overlapping with other media, true value can be significantly impacted.  

MetricWorks’ incrementality MMP, Polaris automates every step from designing experiments and calculating ground truth to training econometric models and deriving incrementality results. Incrementality is delivered in the form of the KPIs you rely on today including ROAS so that your UA or marketing decision-making processes don’t need to change. Polaris is also designed to offer an easy, turnkey “MMP experience” so that you can get started in 24 hours. No IDFAs or GAIDs. No migrations, no extra SDKs, and no heavy implementation lift. Polaris integrates directly with your last touch MMP to provide a single repository for side-by-side comparisons of your last touch and incrementality data.

Why are traditional MMPs and SKADNetwork not enough anymore?

The general issues with traditional MMPs and SKADNetwork is that they are built on the simplified yet flawed view of the world (see Fig. 2a below) and they ignore the fact that conversions are the product of a cohesive media mix (Fig. 2b below) rather than a single ad.

Last touch attribution ignores this complex reality, producing random results that are skewed toward self-attributing networks and dependent on arbitrary attribution windows. This has major impacts on business value. Due to this, UA optimization and prediction are also affected. 

In simpler terms, an inferior measurement signal results in inferior optimization and prediction. Tempr. is a fantastic prediction and automated optimization solution. However, to get the most out of your investment in Tempr., it is critical that you feed it a superior accurate signal tied to business value, namely incrementality. This ensures that Tempr. will make the best predictions and optimizations for you based on the best measurement inputs from MetricWorks Polaris.

Prediction: today’s decisions, with tomorrow’s data

The focus on the protection of personal information increases, but marketers still need to understand how to run successful ad campaigns. And we’ve great news: with prediction, marketers can get an accurate estimate of how their campaigns will perform, before wasting any budget or time. Even with limited data.

Where does prediction come from?

To be fair, prediction is no novelty for big app studios. Their teams usually design their own internal BIs. Most of them have data scientists working on predictions, because key decisions for the future should never be made blindfolded.

But here’s the thing. Any app studio, no matter the size, the language, the revenues, the structure, the MMP, etc., should have affordable and easy access to predictions. Not just the big guys. That’s why Tempr. – a predictive tool that adapts to each app vertical, and their KPIs – was created. Picture it: one big team helping UA Managers make today’s decisions, based on tomorrow’s data.

How does prediction work?

Prediction gives clarity on what’s going to happen next. The core principle is to use the past to predict the future

This marketing approach uses data science to forecast the strategies that are the most likely to succeed. In a simple way, here’s how it works:

1: Historical data mapping
The past is what we call historical data. On the graph below, each black dot represents the revenues made on a specific date.

2: Historical data understanding
The aim is to find trends, seasonality, and any other metrics that affected the past revenues – taking into account bids, budgets, traffic, app verticals, KPIs, etc.

3: Calculation
With machine learning, a mathematical formula that reflects the trends and seasonability of the graph in one curve is calculated. The objective is not to precisely follow each dot but come to a global result like the blue curve on the graph.

4: Data enrichment
The source’s data is enriched with data from MMPs such as MetricWorks for more accurate results.

5: Prediction
The prediction model powered by machine learning create thousands of scenarios with changing parameters and suggests the best bid-, budget-, and creative combination that will achieve the highest results (ROAS or CPE) in the future.

Fig. 3: How predictions work

Fig. 3: How predictions work

Benefits of prediction in UA
Now that the privacy era is on, Attribution and Measurement are more and more limited with SKAdNetwork. To make competitive decisions, mobile marketers need specific data. Not only yesterday or today’s data, but also tomorrow’s. 

UA Managers have to make assumptions on their users journey all the time. How active they will be, what type of events they like, and how much revenue they will generate. And since they don’t exactly know what to expect, they use A/B testing. Experimenting, testing, retesting, deleting. And wait to see what works, and what doesn’t. Which can be very costly.

However, when marketers associate predictions and A/B testing, they limit as much as possible the risks, the time-consuming guesswork and the loss of money along the road. Because prediction shows the successful path to follow, and adapts to the environment every day. And most importantly, Tempr.’s predictions give actionable insights.

 

More than just prediction: actionable insights

To predict the future is good. To recommend exactly what to do in order to achieve greater results? Even better.

Tempr. recommends campaign optimizations based on the predictions. The algorithms predict the combinations of bid, budget, and creative that will have the highest returns or that will decrease costs to achieve a certain event (first listening, download, etc.).

Marketers can finally drop the doubts and let predictions run the thousands of scenarios for them instead.

Fig. 4: Basics of Tempr.

Key takeaways

With prediction, apps increase their competitiveness, their efficiency, and ad campaign profitability. Mobile marketers can focus on what’s important: design better strategies, expand into new markets, and develop new features and apps. As predictive marketing fills in the information gaps left wide open by privacy rules, it’s now a vital practice to adopt.

How incrementality and prediction can work together

As we mentioned above, inferior measurement signal results in inferior optimization and prediction.  Incrementality’s superiority lies in its ability to model complex reality where media sources do interact, both beneficially and detrimentally, due to high audience overlap. Marketing can also both boost and cannibalize organic demand. Therefore feeding Tempr. with a superior incrementality measurement signal from MetricWorks ensures that your predictions and optimizations are far better than those derived from the SKAdNetwork signal.

In particular, as described in Fig. 5 above, with MetricWorks’ incrementality serving as the measurement signal, Tempr. will be able to more accurately identify situations where you might be underspending on a good media source or overspending on a bad media source.

Fig. 6: MetricWorks x Tempr.

The perfect partnership between Tempr. and MetricWorks

This recent partnership between Tempr. and MetricWorks offers mobile UA teams the best of both worlds with superior prediction and optimization by Tempr. being driven by superior incrementality by MetricWorks. “We’ve seen first hand the impact of poor mobile measurement. Therefore, our goal with MetricWorks Polaris is to provide true-north measurement that innovative UA-focused solutions like Tempr. can count on to deliver excellence to their clients in the post-IDFA era,” said Brian Krebs, CEO of MetricWorks.

To move towards a powerful predictive-data-driven decision model, it is crucial for marketers to have tools that provide an accurate understanding of how users interact with their apps. This partnership provides just that, giving marketers the ability to not only understand their app user behavior but to also take action on that information to improve their efficiency and maximize their ad revenues. Prediction-driven UA is undoubtedly linked with reliable data to start with. Therefore we are very happy about our partnership with MetricWorks that offers a very promising, and complementary technology to the well-known attribution platforms, helping mobile marketers to take the right decision,said Cloé Dana, CEO of Tempr.

Together, MetricWorks and Tempr. create the most efficient mobile UA solution on the market today. If you are looking for an edge over your competitors that will elevate your UA performance, contact us today to see how easy it can be:

Vincent Schmiedhausler
Sales Director at Tempr.
vincent@tempr.ai

Chris Hoyt
Chief Growth Officer at MetricWorks
chris.hoyt@metric.works

Why do you need an incrementality MMP?

By now, you would have certainly encountered the deficiencies and frustration of last touch, and SKAdNetwork in particular.  While the scars from those encounters make for great conversation starters, they are also important reminders that it is time to embrace change and re-examine your idea of the ideal measurement stack.

You see, as marketers, for the longest time, we’ve become too comfortable with the simplicity and convenience of last touch.  In an attempt to cling to that comfort, we’ve even accepted a very impaired remnant of last touch, SKAdNetwork and the ecosystem that supports it.  In doing so, we have forsaken any attempt at realizing true marketing visibility and effectiveness.  As a reminder, and please don’t flinch, here are the glaring issues with SKAdNetwork:  

  1. SKAdNetwork leaves marketers with only 100 campaign IDs of granularity.
  2. It does NOT offer a way to cohort KPIs by install date.
  3. Critical post-install performance KPIs that are foundational to your mobile growth strategy (like retention, revenue, LTV, and ROAS) have disappeared and have been replaced by a single conversion value with its own significant limitations.

Now, fortunately in order to just survive and function in a “SKAdNetwork world”, you have last touch MMPs that try to piece the fragments of this last touch signal together.  While keeping your last touch MMP makes sense, it still does NOT address the glaring gap that decimates your marketing strategy.  That is where an incrementality MMP comes in due to the following reasons:

  1. An incrementality MMP is fully compliant with Apple’s privacy policy because it doesn’t depend on device IDs (IDFA or GAID).
  2. Does NOT require any changes to your marketing processes, KPIs or methods of use.
  3. Provides you the very same KPIs (cohorted by install date) that you have grown to cherish.
  4. The data that Polaris needs will always be around and doesn’t require any form of attribution.
  5. Can provide side-by-side comparisons of last touch vs incrementality data.

     

    Which is why we built Polaris, a privacy-centric incrementality MMP that does NOT need IDFAs or GAIDs.  It offers the “MMP experience”, but built for incrementality, in order to overcome the deficiencies of last touch MMPs.  More info about Polaris can be found here.

    We know that change is difficult, but fear not, because we have built Polaris to be quick and easy for you to adopt. So easy in fact, that it is a turnkey drop-in replacement for last touch. No migrations, no extra SDKs, and no heavy implementation lift. Polaris even integrates directly with your last touch MMP to get the data it needs.  

    After having helped many leading mobile gaming companies, we are confident that we can get you started with Polaris in 24 hours. We are here for you. If you are trying to close the gaps in your measurement stack, we are offering a chance to run a POC to compare incrementality measurement to last touch.  You will be astounded at how much better Polaris performs.  Contact us today to get started.

Submit a demo request to hear about the powerful features of Polaris incrementality MMP.  We look forward to helping you.

The MetricWorks Team

Day 1 of iOS14.5

Well, iOS14.5 finally released yesterday.  Day 1 has been filled with surprise, confusion, frustration and doubt.  We’ve heard from UA leaders around the globe about how difficult and frustrating Day 1 has been due to the lack of preparedness across the advertising ecosystem. Many people were even told by trusted partners that Apple was going to allow fingerprinting, that Apple would relax their policies, and that they would be ready. Clearly that is NOT the case. We, at MetricWorks, feel sorry for anyone who’s been misled, or told that their partner would be ATT compliant or ready at the least. As our Chief Growth Officer, Chris Hoyt has said on LinkedIn, “I want to offer you a safe haven. With top-down incremental measurement, you don’t need last touch data or device IDs. Nothing Apple or Google, or the MMPs or the ad networks do, will complicate your ability to measure daily granular incremental KPIs (ROAS, LTV, retention, installs, revenue, etc.). Don’t be a victim in this process. Take control of your UA and UA measurement. We, at MetricWorks, are here for you when you are ready.”

To help those that are trying to close the gaps in their post-IDFA measurement apparatus, we are offering them a chance to run a POC to compare incremental measurement to last touch.  You will be astounded at how much better incremental measurement performs.  Contact us today to get started.

Polaris is the perfect measurement solution for the post-IDFA storm as it does NOT need IDFA or GAID.  Just like the star after which it is named, Polaris will serve as the true north for marketers now that we are in Day 1 of the lights going out with iOS14.5. Polaris will allow gaming studios to utilize incrementality to deliver daily measurement, all at the same granularity that you have always relied upon to make informed marketing decisions.  To learn more, submit a demo request or visit our Polaris product page.

Not only does Polaris help resolve your post-IDFA challenges, it is designed to help you achieve true marketing effectiveness. Contact us today to hear:

  • How Polaris is a ready-to-use, turnkey, drop-in replacement for last touch
  • How Polaris involves zero change to your marketing or UA processes
  • How you can take advantage of special Polaris subscription deals to get you started quickly even before IDFA deprecates

Submit a demo request to hear about the powerful features of Polaris including that it does NOT need IDFA or GAID and can still provide you the following favorite KPIs, DAILY, in incremental form at the source by country level:

  1. Revenue
  2. Installs
  3. ROAS
  4. LTV
  5. Retention
  6. Any other KPI we have data for that matters to your team.

We’re here for you to ensure that you have the right measurement apparatus for the post-IDFA era.  We look forward to helping you.

The MetricWorks Team

 

 

Post-IDFA Incrementality With Brian Krebs & Upptic

We’re excited to share the latest Upptic podcast with our CEO, Brian Krebs as their guest.  Brian discusses “Incrementality in the Post-IDFA Era” with Xander Agosta and Warren Woodward. Thanks Upptic for inviting Brian and addressing this important topic!  Visit the Upptic blog to hear the full podcast as well as other podcasts on relevant mobile marketing topics. In this podcast, you will learn:

  • What is incrementality and how it overcomes the limitations of last touch?
  • How does our incrementality measurement solution, Polaris help a growth/marketing team realize true marketing effectiveness?
  • What level of granularity can be enjoyed via incrementality?

Podcast Summary:
We go on deep dive into incrementality in the mobile marketing context and how it can be used as an alternative or to supplement traditional last-touch attribution. We also discuss how it is more reliable, but less certain then last-touch attribution and how the MetricWorks’ product, Polaris, offers a top-down measurement alternative for the post-IDFA era. Also, Epic Games is making epic bets on the metaverse, and is hypercasual gaming in decline?  You can find the full Upptic podcast here

Now that IDFA will be deprecating really soon, it is time to adopt a new form of measurement, namely, incrementality to understand the true value of your media spend. The take-away is that iOS14 can actually be the driver to pursue a new opportunity in the form of measurement that is grounded in data science and most importantly, in truth.

Submit your questions below. You can also request a demo to learn more about MetricWorks incremental measurement solution, Polaris that is a ready-to-use, turnkey, drop-in replacement for last touch. It involves no change to your marketing or UA processes.  We look forward to helping you ensure that your marketing is truly effective in the post-IDFA era.

Best,

The MetricWorks Team

Introducing Polaris: your true north measurement for the post-IDFA storm

Today represents a major milestone in our mission to make the lives of marketers much easier.  Following an extensive and highly successful beta program, we are proud to announce that our incremental measurement solution, Polaris, is now live.  Thank you to our clients, partners, advisors and our dedicated team who made this possible.  Polaris is the perfect measurement solution for the post-IDFA storm as it does NOT need IDFA or GAID.  Just like the star after which it is named, Polaris will serve as the true north for marketers when the lights go out soon with iOS14.5. Polaris will allow gaming studios to utilize incrementality to deliver daily measurement, all at the same granularity that you have always relied upon to make informed marketing decisions.  To learn more, submit a demo request or visit our Polaris product page.

Not only does Polaris help resolve your post-IDFA challenges, it is designed to help you achieve true marketing effectiveness. Contact us today to hear:

  • How Polaris is a ready-to-use, turnkey, drop-in replacement for last touch
  • How Polaris involves zero change to your marketing or UA processes
  • How you can take advantage of special Polaris subscription deals to get you started quickly even before IDFA deprecates

Reliable measurement is the cornerstone of decision making and our team has worked tirelessly to deliver a solution that will future-proof your UA (without needing IDFA or GAID), and provide true incremental measurement that allows you to dramatically increase the effectiveness of your budget. In case you missed it earlier, here’s a link to our What Is Incrementality? deck.

We have also put together amazing subscription deals that allow you to commence with incremental measurement even before IDFA finally deprecates. Rather than waiting for the inevitable chaos, Polaris will allow you to seamlessly transition from the outdated systems of today into the new world of measurement truth and accuracy from Day One of the post-IDFA storm.

Submit a demo request to hear about the powerful features of Polaris including that it does NOT need IDFA or GAID and can still provide you the following favorite KPIs, DAILY, in incremental form at the source by country level:

  1. Revenue
  2. Installs
  3. ROAS
  4. LTV
  5. Retention
  6. Any other KPI we have data for that matters to your team.

The world is quickly approaching a watershed moment. Do you have the right measurement for the post-IDFA storm?  

Best,

Brian
CEO of MetricWorks

 

 

The Shift From Single Truth To Several Signals Post-IDFA

With the deprecation of IDFA, there will be a shift from a single truth to several signals. We explore this topic in our Conversations With UA Leaders series with Anthony Cross, former VP of UA, Data Science and Product Management at Big Fish Games.  Thank you again Anthony for sharing your keen observations and analysis with us.  Today, we still live comfortably in a world with a single truth, namely, last touch (deterministic, IDFA-matching-based attribution). However, post-IDFA, we will see several signals including SKAdNetwork.  Should you implement SKAdNetwork?  Will there be other signals layered on top of that?  Watch the video below for Anthony’s suggestions and let us know your thoughts:

Our measurement solution is built for operating in the uncertain post-IDFA era that you will face.  Here are the key benefits for marketers:

  1. Free – We invite you to test drive our accurate, cutting edge algorithms with your data for free. The observed mean accuracy of our algorithms is 97%.
  2. Future-proof – It is privacy-centric due to its reliance only on daily aggregated data. No device-level data is required. Our necessary data inputs will never be restricted.
  3. Comprehensive – Our solution measures all marketing including traditionally non-attributable spend like influencer and TV.  It also unveils interactions between multiple media sources.
  4. Incremental – This is the cherry on top since our solution is focused on incrementality in terms of uplift over other marketing activity and organic demand. It avoids the problems inherent in last touch attribution that gravely misalign measurement and true value.

What should you do today to prepare for IDFA deprecation:

  1. Test SKAdNetwork early.
  2. Register for a test drive to test our incremental measurement solution for free while you still have precious time prior to IDFA deprecation.
  3. Compare your results from parallel testing multiple measurement solutions and develop your strategy for utilizing those multiple signals.
  4. Do you want to start building your long term measurement strategy after the lights are already out and the risk to your business is critical? Of course not. Prepare for IDFA deprecation now so you are thriving while your competition is floundering. We can help you do that.

We look forward to your questions and to making the future of your measurement brighter!